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Tianhong Fund Liu Guojiang: Looking forward to Hong Kong stocks in 2020, the consumer sector will become the focus of attention

For Hong Kong stocks, you can never ignore it. Remember the huge bull market of Hong Kong stocks from 2016 to 2017? This is a two-year rapid rise after the launch of the Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014. It will definitely give mainland investors a fresh impression.

Although the Hong Kong stock market has shown a downward trend in 2018 and this year, it is not a perfect opportunity for those who truly perform value investment. What's more, the current Hong Kong stock market has more and more emerged the leader of the new economy-the return of Alibaba, the positive momentum of the US group ...

It is gold that always shines and that value will return. Facing the coming 2020, major institutions are optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, and even think that a bull market for Hong Kong stocks is coming. Tian Hong Kong Stock Connect Select Fund Manager Liu Guojiang is equally optimistic about Hong Kong stocks. As a fund manager focusing on Hong Kong stock investment, in this year's investment, he mainly followed the clues of consumption upgrade to find investment targets.

Dormant 2019

From the beginning of this year to April, the Hong Kong stock market rose sharply with A shares, as if people saw the beauty of investment in 2019, but the subsequent decline in the index was still slightly regrettable after all. As of the close of December 16, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has only increased by 6.63% this year, which is lower than the 19.67% increase of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and lower than the 20.61% increase of the US stock Dow Jones Index. The 11-year bull market of US stocks is even more enviable Envy and hate.

In fact, because the Hang Seng Index has not increased much, the valuation of the Hang Seng Index has been at historically low levels for some time. Haitong Securities pointed out that the current PE (TTM) of the Hang Seng Index is currently only about 10 times, and the history since 2010 refers to about 11.5 times. In addition, in terms of horizontal comparison, the PE of Hong Kong stocks is lower than that of major global indexes. The valuation shows a trend of global value depression.

Liu Guojiang, Manager of Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect Select Fund, said: "2019 is almost over, Hong Kong stocks have not been able to shake off the weak situation. US and European stock markets are bull markets this year, and A shares are also bull markets. However, the fundamentals are similar to the mainland. Hong Kong stocks, which are highly correlated with the monetary environment and market liquidity, have not performed. The main feature of this year's global stock market rise is the expansion of valuations. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has not expanded. Hong Kong stocks' multiple rebounds this year have failed.

Although the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2019 is not bright, it is not without its bright spots in the Hong Kong stock market. The first is the return of Internet leader Alibaba to Hong Kong stocks. Second, the high-gloss performance of some well-known companies is also impressive. The familiar stocks such as Meituan Review and Haidilao are definitely cattle stocks this year.

The starting point of the 2020 Hong Kong stock bull market

Now that the current Hong Kong stock market has become a depression in the global capital market, all we have to do is wait for the arrival of global liquidity.

Guoxin Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve opened a curtain of interest rate cuts in August 2019, which indicates that global liquidity has turned to loose and will remain normal in the next year or two. In 2020, China ’s GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.9%, which is far better than that of major western countries. The valuation of A shares is 13 times PE and Hong Kong shares are 10 times PE, which is far lower than that of major western countries. Whether it is A shares or Hong Kong stocks, they have superior cost performance in global assets. For the Chinese stock market (Hong Kong and A shares), it will no longer be a structural market in 2020: in the sector, it will be a comprehensive bull market dominated by the financial cycle and driven by consumer technology; in style, with the rise in risk appetite, the leading players will not Like the past two years, high-quality enterprises that are unique and non-leading positions will also make good gains. As the year approaches, even if uncertainties such as style shifts may lead to a short-term market rebound, the 2020 bull market pattern will not be changed. Based on historical PB calculations, the HSI is expected to rise above the 40,000 mark in 2021.

Heroes see the same, and Liu Guojiang also said: "Our view on Hong Kong stocks is still optimistic. Mainland companies in Hong Kong stocks are expected to maintain sustained profit growth next year. It is expected that the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise Index earnings growth rate will not be less than 5%. The loose monetary environment and the liquidity of Hong Kong's capital market are expected to remain abundant, providing support for valuation enhancement. In 2019, emerging market stocks generally performed worse than developed markets. According to most sellers' forecasts, the growth expectations of emerging and advanced economies The difference may be reversed, and the opportunities in emerging markets may be better than this year. In the medium and long term, if Hong Kong's asset prices fall, this actually provides better investment opportunities. The operations of most mainland companies listed in Hong Kong will not be affected at all. Lower prices participate in the 'core assets' of your portfolio. "

Consumption, consumption, or consumption

The market has never been short of structured investment opportunities.

This year, consumer stocks have always been the stars of the stock market. As well-known and large-cap stocks, Maotai and Wuliangye can also play an important role in this year's A-share rankings. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Meituan comments that urban youth use every day have gradually become a leading hot pot Haidilao, and the re-emergence of Li Ning and Bosideng ... These well-known consumer stocks must contribute to the investors who invest in them this year. considerable profit. And in the next 2020, will consumer stocks continue to lead the show?

Liu Guojiang believes: "The performance of Hong Kong consumer stocks this year is significantly better than the overall performance of the market. As of December 6, the Hang Seng Consumer Goods Manufacturing and Services Industry Index had a return of 15.13% this year, while the Hang Seng Index rose only 2.53%. Considering consumption The industry's high profit growth rate, the rise of the stock price mainly reflects the profit factor, not the valuation expansion. Hong Kong stocks have concentrated domestic outstanding textile and apparel leaders. In the trend of domestic sports fashion, these companies have maintained rapid growth. From Based on the company performance and our high-frequency tracking data, the growth logic of the industry leaders has remained. In the private education sector, we focus on private higher education and K12 extracurricular training targets. The overall performance of the Hong Kong stock education industry this year is good, the structural differentiation is particularly obvious, and the market The style ranges from the pursuit of extensive high growth to the refinement of high certainty. In the catering and food and beverage industries, there are high-quality leaders. We mainly follow the clues of consumption upgrades and look for targets. Under the protection of brand power, product structure upgrades and price increases Is an important investment logic. Of course, you need to fully guard against rising costs Gross margin declined due to fast, single-store model of rapid expansion due to weakening of risk. "

The most cost-effective way to invest in Hong Kong stocks

For mainland investors, the way to invest in Hong Kong stocks is now much more convenient than before. At present, the most convenient way to invest in Hong Kong stocks is the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is very convenient for investors who have a large amount of funds and are very familiar with Hong Kong stocks.

However, for most mainland investors, many have not reached the funding threshold for investing in Hong Kong Stock Connect. What's more important is that Hong Kong stocks are completely different from A-shares trading methods (T + 0, there is no daily limit), making them less familiar with Hong Kong stocks. Investors in the market are at a loss, and a better option is to invest in funds with the Hong Kong Stock Connect as the target.

And a fund manager who has been focusing on Hong Kong stocks for a long time is particularly important. Liu Guojiang not only focused on investing in the Hong Kong stock market, but also focused on managing this fund selected by Tianhong Stock Connect. When the fund first launched, it subscribed for RMB 10.1 million with a lock-up period of three years. After the fund was opened, he repeatedly subscribed for a large number of times.

With nearly 10 years of investment experience in Hong Kong stocks, Liu Guojiang's investment style has a large-cap growth style, and he is good at mining the main rising wave of white horse stocks. Looking at the top ten stocks of the Tianhong-Hong Kong Stock Connect Select Flexible Allocation Fund, it covers the star consumer stocks that have previously enjoyed strong gains and are very optimistic about the market, such as Haidilao, Shenzhou International and other bull stocks. From the perspective of the fund's net worth curve, it is significantly better than the Hang Seng Index over the same period. In addition, the proportion of large consumer holdings in the fund's stocks is not less than 70%, and it is mainly invested in the sub-sectors involved in Hang Seng Consumer Services and Hang Seng Consumer Goods Manufacturing. In the selection of individual stocks, the industry leader with high barriers is preferred. In fact, the characteristics of Hong Kong stocks are Hengqiang, the strong one. Liquidity is concentrated on stocks with large market capitalization, and stocks with large market capitalization can often outperform stocks with small market capitalization. Text / Dongdong

Source: Daily Economic News

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